Effects of rolling blackouts and extreme weather conditions on smallholder poultry farmers’ profitability: Nkomazi Municipality.

Abstract

Smallholder poultry farming plays an essential role in rural South African livelihoods and food security; yet, increasing energy instability and climate variability threaten its sustainability. This study investigated the effects of rolling blackouts and extreme weather conditions on the profitability of smallholder poultry farmers in selected areas of Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province. This study specifically examined smallholder poultry farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics, perceived and experienced challenges, profitability outcomes, and coping strategies adopted in response to energy and climate-related disruptions. A mixed-methods research design was employed in the study, as primary data was collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 90 smallholder poultry farmers (n=90). Descriptive statistics, Likert scale analysis, gross margin analysis, and multiple linear regression models were employed to analyse the data. Additionally, gross margin (GM) was used as the primary measure of profitability, while regression analysis assessed both accounting-based determinants and contextual effects of rolling blackouts and extreme weather conditions. The study findings revealed that most smallholder poultry farmers (92.2%) generated positive gross margins (R13, 973.00); however, profitability was highly volatile, ranging from R17,500.00 to R39,68.00 and sensitive to external shocks. Total variable costs had a statistically significant negative effect on profitability (p < 0.01), while price per bird exerted a positive influence (p < 0.01). Rolling blackouts and extreme weather conditions indirectly reduced profitability through increased operational disruptions, cost volatility, and bird mortality. Although farmers employed coping mechanisms such as alternative lighting, informal temperature regulation, and structural adaptations, 60% of the respondents reported having limited access to affordable energy alternatives, extension services, and 87% lacked financial support, which constrained their effectiveness. The study concludes that while smallholder poultry farming remains economically viable in the short term, its profitability is fragile under persistent energy and climate stressors. Strengthening energy reliability, improving access to extension services, promoting climate resilient infrastructure, and enhancing market and financial support mechanisms are essential to improving the long-term resilience and sustainability of smallholder poultry enterprises.