Evaluating the dynamic effects of environmental taxation and energy transition on greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach.

Abstract

South Africa remains one of Africa’s highest greenhouse gas emitters due to its reliance on coal and a carbon-intensive economy. This study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the impact of environmental taxes, coal consumption, and low-carbon transition strategies on GHG emissions. Results show that coal use significantly drives long-term emissions, while the positive correlation between environmental tax revenue and emissions suggests inefficiencies in fiscal-environmental alignment. The significant error correction term indicates gradual movement toward equilibrium despite short-term disruptions. The findings underscore the need for an integrated climate strategy that includes regulatory reform, investment in renewables, and the redesign of green fiscal tools. Inclusive governance—engaging state, private, academic, and civil sectors—is vital for a just and effective energy transition.